First post, and a late season preview...

Alrighty, so here we go. I don't know if anybody will see this right away but it doesn't matter. I just wanted to get this out of the way so the page doesn't look blank. I've been writing about the M's on myspace for awhile now, on my own blog and in the group BASEBALL - We Live For This so I figured that I would start my own blog here. I wrote a Mariners season preview before the season started and although its late I figure, why not post it.



Seattle Mariner’s season preview:

First Base: Richie Sexson. I predict that he will post a normal Richie Sexson year, .270 Avg, .520 Slg, .350 OBP, 35-40 Hrs, 110 RBIs, 150+ K’s. His output, in my opinion, will stay the same as it has, he showed no sort of drop off last year and hit the ball extremely well in the second half last season., .322 Avg, .613 Slg, .399 OBP, and 18 of his 34 Hrs. So who knows, he might even over perform or get out to a slow start and perform down the stretch.

Second Base: Jose Lopez. In the first half of last season he was a monster(for a second baseman), .280 Avg, .454 Slg, .316 OBP, 9 Hrs, 20 2B and 58 RBIs. In the second half he suffered a power slump where he only hit 1 HR, 8 2B, and his Slg dropped to .336 but he did see a slight rise in Avg to .285. Did pitchers figure out his power stroke? Did he just have a bad second half? I think it’s a combo, and I see him this year returning to about where he was in the first half going for about the same Avg, a Slg around .400, an OBP around .330, 15 Hrs, and 90 RBIs. Then again he could end up performing exactly like he did in the second half but I doubt it.

Shortstop: Yuniesky Betancourt. An amazing defender and could easily contend for a gold glove. His offensive numbers were decent, .289 avg., .403 slg., .310 obp., 8 Hrs, and 28 2B. I think that he’s about reached his offensive potential but if he could learn to walk more(Only 17 walks last year) he could be the best 9th hitter in the game. Another thing that he would need to get better at would be against Left handed pitching, as his average was only .240 against lefties last season. I see him improving a little at the plate but shining in the field as one of the best defenders in the game.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre. Had a decent season last year overall but vast improvement was shown in the second half. His defense is enviable and make one of the best defensive left sides in all of baseball with Yuni as his SS. Before the all star break he hit only .254, with a .392 slg., a .318 OBP, only 7 Hrs, and only 35 RBIs. In the second half however he ripped the cover off the ball hitting .285, with a .552 slg, a .340 OBP, 18 Hrs, and 54 RBIs in only 68 games. If you project out his second half stats over 156 games(the amount he played last season) he would hit 41 Hrs, have 124 RBIs, and 44 doubles. If this Adrian Beltre shows up this lineup could get a lot more dangerous. Although I don’t see him hitting those exact numbers I do see him hitting about .280, with a .500 slg, a .340 OBP, 35 Hrs, 110 RBIs, and 40 2B. Even with those stats its definite improvement over his first two years with the Mariners.

Right Field: Jose Guillen. Got hurt last year while playing for the Nationals but if his arm holds out he could be a good pickup. He’s got a good arm in right , although not Ichiro he can throw out runners. If he goes back to his pre-injury skill level I predict he will hit about .270, with a .430 slg, a .310 OBP, with 20 Hrs, and 80 RBIs. His performance depends heavily upon his arm’s ability to heal.

Center Field: ICHIRO! Ichiro is an animal and I’m predicting greatness from him this season. Last season he hit .322, with a .416 slg, a .370 OBP, 45 SB, only 2 CS, and 110 R. This season I see an amazing year for Ichiro. .350 avg, .440 slg, a .385 OBP, 50 SB, 125 R, and 230 H. His move to center field will have no effect on his fielding and improve the Mariner’s outfield defense as he can cover more ground than Jeremy Reed, so maybe Ichiro can make up for a lack of athleticism in left.

Left Field: Rauuuuuuul Ibanez. Had a career year last year and I’m not looking for a repeat performance. He hit .289, with a .516 slg, a .353 OBP, 33 Hrs(career high), 123 RBIs(career high), 181 H(career high), 103 R(career high). This year I see a slight drop off for the 35 year old, .280 avg, .455 slg., a .350 OBP, 23 Hrs, and 90 RBIs. He could move to DH during the season.

DH: Jose Vidro. Has been hurt the past three years, playing only 323 games in that time. He hit .289 last season while slg .395, having an OBP of .348, 7 Hrs, 26 2B, and 47 RBIs. This season he will play in more games this season than the previous three being at DH and no longer needing to play the field. His slg will continue to decline as it has the past 5 seasons, and thereby giving the Mariners the worst DH once again. He will hit .280, with a dismal .375 slg, and OBP of .325, 13 Hrs, 22 2B, and 70 RBIs. Ben Broussard or Raul Ibanez could see time here if he is hurt again or underperforms.

Starting rotation:
1. King Felix. He lost 20 pounds in the off season and is now in top shape to begin the season, this could be Felix’s breakout campaign. Last season he was a 19 year old going into his first full season in the MLB after tantalizing us with his amazing abilities during the previous years call ups. However he didn’t perform as many expected he would a 4.52 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP, and a 12-14 record. He show improvement in the second half though dropping his ERA from 4.95 to 4.02, dropping his whip from 1.39 to 1.27, increasing his GO/AO ratio from 2.11 to 2.50, dropped his SLG against from .431 to .380, dropped his OBP against from .332 to .307, and dropped his average against from .275 to .246. This year he will be the 20 year old ace of the Mariners. I project that he will go about 15-6 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 190 K’s, in 200 innings. He will be a major key to the Mariners success this season.

2. Jarrod Washburn. Was brought over through free agency last year and severely underperformed going 8-14 with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .86 GO/AO ratio. He sucks and will continue to suck, this was a horrible signing and only did well in his contract year to make some money. He is going to suck again, but suck a little less, 8-10 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .90 GO/AO ratio. When Jarrod Washburn is your second starter your rotation is not in good shape.

3. Horacio Ramirez. The lefty was brought over from Atlanta in a trade that gave up relief ace Rafael Soriano, he’d better live up to his talent or we gave up a great setup man for nothing. Got hurt during the season last year but went 5-5 with a 4.48 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 76 innings. I think he’ll produce a little better than that pitching in Safeco which is an amazing pitchers park. I also see him benefiting from the Mariner’s infield defense. I see him going 11-10 with a 4.30 ERA, 100 K’s, in 200 innings, with a GO/AO ratio around 2.00. He won’t make up for the loss of Soriano but he will be a serviceable 3rd starter.

4. Miguel Batista. Brought over through free agency from the Diamondbacks. He went 11-8 with a 4.58 ERA, 110 K’s, a WHIP of 1.53, and a GO/AO of 1.81, in 206 innings. He will not get to 200 innings this year because he won’t be a starter the whole year. He will be moved to the bullpen after he starts out 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA, a WHIP of 1.65, and a GO/AO of 1.60. He will be moved to the pen and do a decent job there in long relief with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an GO/AO of 1.80. He will be replaced by Brandon Morrow or Jake Woods after showing he is Joel Pineiro version 2.0.

5. Jeff Weaver. Went from sucking with the Angels to winning the World Series lets see if he can keep up what he did in the playoffs. Went 8-14 with a 5.76 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP. I don’t think he will keep up what he did in the playoffs last year with the Cardinals and will look more like he did in LA last season. He will go 4-9 with a 5.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 1.00 GO/AO ratio before being released or sent to the bullpen. He will be replaced by Cha Seung Baek or Brandon Morrow around the all star break.

Bullpen:
CL: JJ Putz. The relief ace of the Mariners broke out last season an will continue performing in that role. He went 4-1 with 36 saves, a 2.30 ERA, 104 K’s, a .92 WHIP, in 78.1 innings. This season he will continue to pitch well from the closers role with his 98 MPH heater and his 90 MPH cutter going 3-2 with 40 saves, a 2.45 ERA, 95 K’s, a 1.00 WHIP, in 70 innings. The anchor of the bullpen will continue to be just that.

SU: Chris Reitsma. Was hurt last season with the Braves and performed poorly but before last season was a decent set-up man. Went 1-2 last year with an ERA of 8.68 in 28 innings last season but in the pervious two years he had a combined ERA of 4.00 in 153 innings going 9-10 with 102 K’s, a GO/AO ratio of 1.64, and a WHIP of 1.32. I think he will perform similarly to how he did in 2005. He will go 4-4 with a 3.90 ERA, 50 K’s, a WHIP of 1.25, and a GO/AO ratio around 1.65.

RP: Brandon Morrow. 22 year old rookie this season after being the Mariners first round pick in last year’s amateur draft. Spent last season in single-A and pitched less than 10 innings. Looks to be a starter next season but if Miguel Batista or Jeff Weaver fail(I think they will) the hard-throwing Morrow could force his way into the rotation. I’m going to be completely honest here, I have no idea how he will perform but he is a guy to look out for and it could become an interesting situation if he does well.

RP: Arthur Rhodes. The guy is bipolar with his pitching, has produced a sub-2.00 ERA 3 times in the past 6 years but has also produced an ERA above 5.00 2 of the past six seasons. I don’t think we’ll see the good Rhodes or the bad Rhodes, I think we’ll see him about middle ground, 4.00 ERA, 45 innings, 45 K’s, and a WHIP of 1.20.

Role Players and Backups:
Willie “Ballgame”: He can’t hit for shit but he is valuable because he can play a variety of positions, OF, 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS. He is a crappy version of Ryan Freel but I can’t bash Willie too much because its not like he has a ton of talent and just slacks off, he gives everything he has at all times. He will see himself into at least 80 games this year and hit about .250 and Slg about .320 with an OBP of about .300.

Adam Jones OF: He will find his way onto the field at some point this season, whether it be because Vidro is hurt or just sucking and being put into left while Ibanez is shifted to DH, or if Jose Guillen is underperforming and Ichiro is shifted back to right which would enable Jones to play his natural position of Centerfield. He struggled last season during call ups but had hit .280 in the minors before that and has shown promising power and speed.

Ben Broussard 1B/DH: Hit very badly after being traded from Cleveland during the season last year. He hit .238 in his 56 games with the Mariners while SLG .427, with a .282 OBP, 8 Hrs, and 17 RBIs. I don’t see this continuing, Safeco favors lefties who pull the ball, I see him hitting .270, slugging .470, with an OBP of .310, and 10-15 Hrs depending on his playing time.

Team Projection:
The Mariners are a team with a lot of questions. Will Vidro overcome his knee problems? Will Brandon Morrow do well in the pen after less than 10 innings as a pro? Will the rotation perform? Is the new improved and healthy Felix able to succeed as the teams ace? If everything goes right the Mariners could get to 90-95 wins, if everything goes wrong the Mariners could lose 90-95 games. I see them improving a little bit from last year but not much, the Mariners will go about .500 and could reach 85 wins. The Mariners will find themselves out of the basement at last and maybe into 2nd place.

Division Projection:
1. Angels(88-74)
2. Mariners(83-79)
3. A’s(82-80)
4. Texas(77-85)


And if you don't believe I wrote this before the season started, it is also on my myspace, Link, and if you notice the date posted is April 1st.